Ramadi = Evidence Iraq Needs to Develope Rapid deployment force

by Ian Bach June 5, 2015 Quick Reaction Force ww2
A couple months News Orgs were reporting G2 involved in Iraq strategy to retake Mosul - outlining the units needed, their make-up, and it looked good, 8 or 10 Brigades 5 general army 2 counter insurgent / counter terrorist 1 or 3 i forget policing & other local forces, maybe a couple Sunni Militias would be best. But it also said Coalition "was not going to rush in without a good plan." My fear was they would drag their feet, and not do the correct thing = "Go for the Jugular".

So they did nothing but target retakes and some defensive lines. But like in World War 2 with Norway the allies didn't lose that battle, it was given away.

Mosul could have been attacked a month or 2 ago - "Cut the head of the Serpent" even if it meant U.N. Units........... but I would not use U.S. Units.

ISIS has been moving around doing stabbing attacks then fall back to ISIS held areas. These pin pricks have at times been more than pin pricks, and end up like Tikrit, Mosul, Raqqa, each city fell because there was no effective quick deployment strategies. At least not an effective one. If the American Generals wont help put it together, than Iraq needs to find a partner who can assist in the implementation of a effective response. For best effect America can make good use of the Air Force, look back at the "Berlin Airlift". Humanitarian aide and Troop transport, & aerial attacks on forces that follow suicide attacks, It must be a large scale endeavor, as told in every COIN (counterinsurgency)  story book, but almost never implemented.

I saw one ISIS post bragging that a ethnic Sunni tribe of 9 million has signed on with ISIS, eeeeerrrr NOT !....

More like a peace treaty that reads "We won't kill your Sheiks if you let us run everything". also if their is 9 million in that tribe I bet only 1-3 million in Iraq (rest in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, & elsewhere.) of 3 million how many soldiers can you get?

The answer is about 20,000 to 40,000 by my estimates another 10-20k accidental guerrillas, but you also  get a 10 x that in people who they can tax and control who works and who doesn't, they get into everything, people hate these guys, for good reason. People flee towns when ISIS comes knocking they don't cheer.. As long as that metric remains true, than the enemy has not only lost the battle, but they have lost the War.

I am not sure who is running the Overall Military "show" in Iraq, but they should be fired. If we don't even attempt to effectively counter the enemies abilities, strategies, and tactics, then we have lost the Battle, and the enemy will continue to gain ground, loot, kill rape, destroy history, etc.

ISIS strategy = Piss off non Muslims and non Sunni Arabs get into a fight for land and politics and minerals, make Money (prob #1 on their list) tax, tax, tax, also they sell electricity, gas, &water to Syrian Gov. Now in Iraq they can sell water to Iraqi Gov.with their Dam at Ramadi, of course looting is another activity they love to do, rape pillage etc etc, Their online strategy is mostly aimed at requirement, indoctrinator (making it look cool to some disenfranchised youth or some psycho
ISIS Tactics = Fast attacks on Mass, lots of very large suicide tanker bombs, at start of battle many other various suicide Attucks to target individuals sheiks and communities,, kill scholars, any highly educated and looked up to figures kill or their possessions, kill any brave outspken people asap, after that the remaining citizens will pretty much do what you say and pay your tax, they know they will be punished if they don't. The money is used to fun "Global JIhad". This was a strategy that al Qaeda had been pursuing long before ISIS.

Coalitions Strategy = Sit wait and think of a really cool plan !!! (while the walls fall in)
Coalition Tactics = Wait until the enemy has had time to piss off the locals and find some really cool hiding places !!! they will tunnel and they love to set up lots of IEDs. SO expect Huge loses - because you waited till the enemy had time to dig in, also higley restrict your air force from even thinking about hitting any targets, unless Some overworked guy okays it. I say over worked guy. Because from the number of strikes I see it must be a one man show. We need thousands of people in that endeavor alone. hundreds of eyes in the skies, and thousands of eyes on the ground. If we do have that, then someone onm top must be sitting on his hands. - by Ian Bach June 5, 2015
Quick Reaction Force ww2
Architect of Soviet Victory in World War II: The Life and Theories of G.S By Richard W. Harrison

The battle for Tikrut

Alliance provides hope in fight against Islamic State in Iraq

Of all the allies that Iraqi forces might work with to defeat the Islamic State, the Jubbour tribe would seem to be among the most ideal.
Its members are powerful, pro-government and eager to take on the jihadists. But for Shiite leaders in Baghdad, there was one problem: the Jubbour tribesmen are Sunnis — and from an area where local tribes have collaborated with the Islamic State.
Now, after extensive negotiations, both sides are fighting together in the battle to reclaim Tikrit, a city 110 miles northwest of Baghdad, from an entrenched force of Islamic State fighters. They have made significant progress: On Tuesday, the pro-government forces captured the key district of Alam outside Tikrit. But their uneasy alliance shows the difficulties of bridging Iraq’s deep sectarian division.
Bringing Sunnis and Shiites together to battle the Islamic State is a linchpin of U.S. strategy in Iraq. The cooperation in Tikrit could be a model for future battles. Still, such alliances are rare, and revenge attacks by Shiite militias on local residents could quickly destroy the goodwill.
On Tuesday, a video posted to YouTube appeared to show members of the Shiite militia Assaib ahl al-Haq burning the homes of Sunni residents of Abu Ajeel, another village near Tikrit that was recently in the hands of the Islamic State. After military operations in Diyala province recently, Shiite gunmen killed dozens of Sunni residents, Sunni officials said.
“The Shiite militias have a track record of sectarian atrocities,” said Hassan Hassan, co-author of “ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror.” The Islamic State, an al-Qaeda offshoot, is also known as ISIS or ISIL.
“This is being portrayed as a Sunni-Shia national effort,” Hassan said. “And it’s far from it. The fears are real.”
Sectarian tensions rose in Iraq in the aftermath of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled strongman Saddam Hussein. He had long favored his fellow minority Sunnis over the country’s Shiite majority.
When the Shiites came to power, then-Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki implemented sectarian policies that fed a wave of discontent among Sunni communities already feeling disenfranchised. The Islamic State, which grew out of a group called al-Qaeda in Iraq, capitalized on the unrest to eventually seize wide swaths of territory. In June, the militants captured Tikrit, a midsize city that was Hussein’s home town.
Then, at a nearby military base, Islamic State fighters kidnapped and massacred as many as 1,700 Shiite soldiers attempting to flee the militant offensive. Some of the local Sunni tribes — particularly from the village of Abu Ajeel — were said to have aided the jihadists. Shiite militias recruited to fight alongside Iraqi forces have portrayed their current offensive as revenge for that bloodbath.
The Jubbour tribe, whose stronghold is the nearby town of Alam, initially resisted the militants’ summer onslaught. The tribe’s chief, Sheik Khames al-Jebbara, helped Shiite survivors escape by providing fake identification cards that labeled the soldiers as Sunnis. Then the residents of Alam took up arms against the militants, battling for two weeks until they were forced to acquiesce. The Islamic State later carried out reprisal attacks against Jubbour members, kidnapping and killing dozens.
Still, Iraqi officials and Shiite commanders were hesitant to bring the tribesmen on board for the recent fight. Shiite leaders

Jabbouri Jabouri Jabour Jabbour

were worried that Sunni militants would try to infiltrate the militias, according to officials involved in the negotiations between the two sides.
Shiite fighters and Iraqi security forces ride in an armored vehicle in the town of Alam on March 9, 2015. (Thaier Al-Sudani/Reuters)
The Sunnis wanted to make sure the government would support them in any long-term fight against the jihadists. After U.S. forces armed Sunni tribes to fight al-Qaeda-led insurgents in Iraq in 2006-2007, Maliki disbanded the Sunni forces. Many of the fighters felt betrayed and either joined or were targeted by anti-government insurgents.
The militia leaders “wanted to make sure every [Sunni] volunteer had a clean sheet,” said Omar al-Jebbara, a Jubbour tribesman from Alam who is fighting in the Tikrit operation. “And we wanted to make sure they could guarantee our future so we don’t become easy prey” for the Islamic State.
Both sides say the Shiite commanders agreed to work with the tribesmen from Alam after cooperating with a branch of the Jubbour tribe in Duluiyah. Together they ousted militants from that town north of Baghdad in December.
In the past two months, more than 500 Jubbour fighters trained with the militias and were supplied with light weapons. On Tuesday, pro-government forces recaptured Alam.
“We know the area. We know every path,” said Omar al-Jebbara, the fighter. “God willing, we will hold our ground.”
But the Jubbour tribesmen, while lauded as models of Iraqi unity, played only a nominal role in the battle. They acted as spotters and guides while thousands of militiamen charged into the area under Shiite banners.
Analysts say pro-government Sunnis are not necessarily representative of the larger Sunni population, which fears the rise of the Shiite militias.
There are Sunnis working with the Iraqi government and fighting with the militias, “but what role they have and how much they represent Sunni demands and Sunni grievances is a different story,” Hassan said.
On Monday, Iraq’s mufti, or chief Sunni spiritual leader, blasted the Tikrit offensive.
“It’s a sectarian movement, and they want to remove the Sunnis [from these areas], but they will never do it,” the mufti, Rafa al-Rifae, said of the Shiite militias, speaking on a local television station.
“I’m saying this so that those Sunni people who are cooperating with them will wake up,” he said. “Because right now, they are helping them [the militias] fight their own people.”

Mustafa Salim contributed to this report.

Iraq's Prime Minister says they are preparing to retake Mosul from ISIS / Daesh

Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi says its armed forces are preparing for an offensive to retake the northern city of Mosul from Islamic State (IS) (Video Link Here)
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Mr Abadi told the BBC he hoped Mosul would be liberated in a few months' time, and with a minimum of casualties.

Mosul, which was home to more than a million people, fell to IS last June.

Mr Abadi also said he had been "a bit frustrated" in his first few months in office by the slowness of international help for the fight against IS.

But in recent weeks, he added, the situation had changed for the better.

Co-ordination

Mr Abadi replaced his party colleague, Nouri Maliki, as prime minister in September. Mr Maliki, also a Shia Muslim, was widely criticised for alienating Iraq's Sunni Arab minority by pursuing sectarian policies.

Iraqi security forces, trained and backed by the US military, have been trying to retake territory from IS

IS is believed to have capitalised on that alienation when it captured large parts of northern and western Iraq last summer, routing the army.

Soldiers and allied Shia militiamen have now begun to retake territory north of the capital Baghdad with the help of US-led coalition air strikes, while Kurdish Peshmerga forces have made advances around Mosul.

In an interview with BBC World Affairs editor John Simpson, Mr Abadi said Iraqi government forces were "planning an offensive on Mosul in the next few months".

However, he did not specify when the offensive might be launched, saying that he hoped it would be before the end of the year.

The timing of the assault depended "on the situation on the ground" and "our own preparation", he said.

Analysis: John Simpson, BBC world affairs editor

Haider al-Abadi gives the impression that he wants to run Iraq as rationally and unemotionally as he ran his engineering company during his exile in the UK.

His predecessor, Nouri Maliki, was often accused of pushing the sectarian interests of the Shia population. Mr Abadi says he is determined to end sectarianism, and to govern in the interests of Iraq as a whole.

Is he right to be optimistic about winning back Mosul?

Islamic State is being pushed back right across Iraq, and although it still controls around a quarter of Iraqi territory it no longer inspires the terror it once did.

Last June, when IS fighters attacked Mosul, the Iraqi army just ran away. Now, the Abadi government is confident that the army, together with civilian volunteer fighters from across the country, can win Mosul back over the next few months.

If that does happen, it will be a staggering blow to Islamic State.

Mr Abadi said the operation's success would also hinge upon close co-ordination between Iraqi security forces, the US military, and the Peshmerga.

"We don't want problems in liberating Mosul, or friction in that sense," he explained.

IS fighters have held Mosul, one of Iraq's largest cities, since last summer

The Iraqi leader said he initially wished that the US-led coalition could have acted faster in the campaign against IS.

"I was a bit frustrated in my first three months of being a prime minister because of the slowness of this support."

But, he said, it had improved in the last four or five weeks, adding: "I think the air campaign has increased in its quality and intensity."

Mr Abadi ruled out the need for US ground troops in the campaign, saying his country needed other forms of help, such as weapons and training.

He also said he opposed closer involvement from other countries in the region in the fight against IS.

"We welcome their support, but not for these countries to get involved inside Iraq."

"We will end up having not only helpers on our hand, but countries and intelligence agencies and armies trying to achieve their own interests."

Despite Mr Abadi's assertion, regional Shia power Iran has played a key role in countering IS inside Iraq. Tehran has sent Revolutionary Guards to advise the Iraqi security forces, Iranian pilots have carried out air strikes, and Iranian-backed Shia militia have been mobilised and armed.

Whats going to happen in next 2 Months in Iraq?

Even without a crystal ball we can make a few assumptions based on what we see going on the Ground.

Kurds have Mosul surrounded on North West and East

Iraq's Prime Minister says they are preparing to retake Mosul from ISSI / Daesh

ISIS has recently moved Southeast of Mosul and almost have control of the town al-Baghdadi

al-Baghdadi is City near the al-Asad airport where U.S. troops are training Iraqi Army Units.

I am hoping we will see the IA Iraqi Army move through al-Baghdadi on their way to the Southern boarders of the city of Mosul. However that is not that likely. One sad note will be the people who Daesh have co-opted on their way across Western Iraq last year, and those within Mosul. Daesh has already made it clear they expect each family iin Mosul to have one of their sons join Daesh in their attempts to hold back the Peshmerga and Iraqi Army. Hopefully and I am expecting this we may not see the Shiite militias involved expect maybe some top commanders aidiing the Iraqi Army IA battle commanders. The reason I hope we do not see them in the battle for Mosul is it would send the wrong message to Sunni Tribes in the Anbar Provence. I would love to see local Anbar militias join in on the battle to take back Mosul. It would send a good strong message the Government is willing to work with, and include them, However it is unlikely we would see that happen. The Anbar militias have been meeting with the U.S. Government to try get heavy weapon for the Suni Militias. The U.S. governments position so far has been to give all Weapons and Ammo to the Iraqi Government. This requirement has ended up with the Shiite militias getting all the best weapons while the Kurds and Sunni tribes have been denied shipments of heavy weapons, (which they both desperately need). ISIS has been targeting and killing many Sunni shieks and any other high profile military, religious and/or other high rank persons of interest.