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Showing posts with label kilcullen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kilcullen. Show all posts

Thursday, March 20, 2014

CITIZENS REPORT IN ALEPPO SYRIA 2014

Full Article is HERE

The report was developed by interviewing citizens in Aleppo, Syria on a monthly basis. It is a street block by street block analysis.
The citizens were asked a variety of questions such as:
Who do you think is the legitimate representative of the Syrian people?
Who provides security?
Where do people turn to settle their disputes, or in the event of a crime or theft?
Who controls the checkpoints?
How restrictive are the checkpoints?
How often do you let your children out of the home?
How frequent are crimes?
The report also focuses on:
Location of check points and road blocks
Location of bakeries
Price of bread
Access to electricity
I am currently still reviewing the report, and I will be writing several articles/blog posts with summaries, findings, and links to additional sources of reliable information/data regarding Syria.
So far I can state a few things in regards to Aleppo and Syria:
  1. The center of Aleppo was not rebelling against the regime, so the rebels took the fight to those areas. The center of the city is now the most fought over and the residents movement is now very restrictive.
  2. Regime forces control about 45% of Aleppo. The Syrian Air Force Intelligence oversees regime-controlled areas away from the front lines. The Republican Guard is deployed to protect some of Aleppo’s most tense front lines.
  3. Bread in regime held areas is about 1/3rd to 1/5th the cost compared to rebel held areas.
  4. 40% of the people feel that “no one” represents them,
  5. Al Qaeda-affiliates remain strong in Aleppo. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria ISIS controls 1/3rd of all opposition held neighborhoods. Their checkpoints are the most restrictive and........ READ MORE HERE 
Dr. David Kilcullen and Mr. Nate Rosenblatt of Caerus Associates who will provide a briefing on findings from what may be the most detailed, publicly available assessment of the ongoing conflict in Syria to date.

Findings are based on four months of in-depth, time-series research from within Aleppo, Syria’s largest, most diverse, and most economically relevant city. Today, Aleppo is one of the most divided cities in the country. Tomorrow, its future may resemble that of other, large, non-capital cities in post-conflict Middle Eastern states such as Libya’s Benghazi or Iraq’s Mosul.

Video Link HERE

Saturday, November 24, 2007

28 Fundamentals of Company-level Counterinsurgency


 

Twenty-Eight Articles

Fundamentals of Company-level Counterinsurgency

by

David Kilcullen

This paper reflects the author.s personal judgments and does not represent the views of any department or agency of the U.S. Government or any other government.

Introduction

Your company has just been warned for deployment on counterinsurgency operations in Iraq or Afghanistan. You have read David Galula, T.E. Lawrence and Robert Thompson. You have studied FM 3-24 and now understand the history, philosophy and theory of counterinsurgency. You watched Black Hawk Down and The Battle of Algiers, and you know this will be the most difficult challenge of your life.

But what does all the theory mean, at the  company level? How do the principles translate into action . at night, with the GPS down, the media criticizing you, the locals complaining in a language you don.t understand, and an unseen enemy killing your people by ones and twos? How does counterinsurgency actually happen?

There are no universal answers, and insurgents are among the most adaptive opponents you will ever face. Countering them will demand every ounce of your intellect. But be comforted: you are not the first to feel this way. There are tactical fundamentals you can apply, to link the theory with the techniques and procedures you already know.

What is counterinsurgency?

If you have not studied counterinsurgency theory, here it is in a nutshell: this is a competition with the insurgent for the right and the ability to win the hearts, minds and acquiescence of  the population. You are being sent in because the insurgents, at their strongest, can defeat anything weaker than you. But you have more combat power than you can or should use in most situations. Injudicious use of firepower creates blood feuds, homeless people and societal disruption that fuels and perpetuates the insurgency. The most beneficial actions are often local politics, civic action, and beat-cop behaviors. For your side to win, the people do not have to like you but they must respect you, accept that your actions benefit them, and trust your integrity and ability to deliver on promises, particularly regarding their security. In this battlefield popular perceptions and rumor are more influential than the facts and more powerful than a hundred tanks.

Within this context, what follows are observations from collective experience: the distilled essence of what those who went before you learned. They are expressed as commandments, for clarity . but are really more like folklore. Apply them judiciously and skeptically.

Preparation

Time is short during pre-deployment, but you will never have more time to think than you have now. Now is your chance to prepare yourself and your command.................More

Click here for the PDF document

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Religion has nothing to do with Insurgency


Religion and Insurgency
May 12, 2007 by David Kilcullen

A few commentators have panned the new counterinsurgency manual for insufficient emphasis on religion. There is a grain of truth in this criticism but, as a practitioner, the evidence I see does not really support it. Rather, field data suggest, some critics may misunderstand both current conflicts and the purpose of doctrine. Worse, they may be swallowing propaganda from munafiquun who pose as defenders of the faith while simultaneously perverting it. (Did I sound like a politician there? Never mind. I will show factual evidence for this assertion, so the resemblance is fleeting I hope)...

Continue reading "Religion and Insurgency"