ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Lafer Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He specialises in the politics and security of Iraq. He has worked in every Iraqi province and most of the country's hundred districts, including periods embedded with Iraq's security forces.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
In the past week, the Peshmerga armed forces of Iraqi Kurdistan put a major dent in the northern defences of Mosul, Iraq's second largest city and capital of the self-styled Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The Peshmerga launched a powerful offensive on both sides of the Tigris River to the north of Mosul, extending the area of Kurdish control around ISIL strongholds like Kisik (the former base of the 3rd Iraqi Army division), Wana and Badush.
The Kurds are now 32km northwest of Mosul city to the north and are much closer, often just 8 to 16km, from the eastern areas of Mosul city. Along the Syria-Iraq border the Kurds are gradually extending their control around Sinjar and restricting ISIL use of the border areas closest to Mosul.
In the past week, the Peshmerga armed forces of Iraqi Kurdistan put a major dent in the northern defences of Mosul, Iraq's second largest city and capital of the self-styled Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The Peshmerga launched a powerful offensive on both sides of the Tigris River to the north of Mosul, extending the area of Kurdish control around ISIL strongholds like Kisik (the former base of the 3rd Iraqi Army division), Wana and Badush.
The Kurds are now 32km northwest of Mosul city to the north and are much closer, often just 8 to 16km, from the eastern areas of Mosul city. Along the Syria-Iraq border the Kurds are gradually extending their control around Sinjar and restricting ISIL use of the border areas closest to Mosul.
The federal government's main forces are just over 160km to the south, firming up their control of Beiji, site of Iraq's largest refinery and a vital crossroads that links ISIL areas of strength in Anbar, Kirkuk, Tikrit, and Mosul.
With international air support and intelligence, the federal government's special forces are periodically probing the desert areas west of Mosul with a view to choking off the ISIL line of supply to Syria.
Battle for Mosul in 2015?
A new nine-brigade Iraqi army force is being slowly assembled by Iraq's Ministry of Defence with US backing, intended to train and equip 45,000 troops specifically for the task of urban assault in the face of heavy street-by-street resistance.
At the same time another war is being fought largely unseen - the war of the coalition's spies and sensors versus ISIL's sentinels keeping a close eye on the citizens of Mosul.
Iraqi army prepares for assault on Mosul |
The US and other international allies can map every structure and track every signal emanating from Mosul.
Local informants talking to the Kurds, Iraqis and Americans are helping to build a picture of life inside Mosul and the location and habits of ISIL in the city.
All these preparations are being made in advance of the main event; a storming of Mosul city during 2015. But when will this attack take place and how long will the battle for Mosul last?
For the federal government in Iraq, time is of the essence.
Baghdad's leaders want to deliver tangible victories against ISIL in 2015, and that means liberating ISIL-held cities. Iraqi leaders may be tempted to view Mosul as the "head of the snake", the ISIL capital within Iraq and a far more significant and populous city than ISIL's first capital in Raqqa, Syria.
ISIL would not disappear with Mosul's recapture, but a powerful blow would be struck against its prestige and recruitment potential. ISIS can probably muster well under 10,000 militants in a city of nearly one million residents, meaning that the balance could turn against them rapidly if the populace feels that liberation is close at hand.
Call for an early probe
These factors have led some Iraqi government planners to call for an early probe of the Mosul defences, to test whether ISIL really can control the city in the face of an imminent government offensive.
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#TwitterKurds will defeat #Daeshbags
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