When we look at the future of Afghanistan and the present situation, we must look at Pakistan's Tribal Region located in the North-West area of Pakistan. This is where Taliban and al-Qaeda actively train personal for Jihad. There is strong indications that we do have intelligence from this region that appears to be accurate. Whether Bin Laden is still alive is of little consideration in regards to the future and present actions of al Qaeda.
Most intelligence agencies agree the Internet is al-Qaeda's number one Recruitment and Propaganda Bases of operations. But little is talked about the number of recruits that stem from Saudi Arabia. Most of these are products of radical clerics within Saudi Arabia. So why does the Saudi government support or at a minimum overlook the Wahhabi (Arab Supremacy Cult) that focuses on extremist views of the Quran and a view that the end of the world is near. (Ian rolls his eyes)... Geez how many groups over the past 2,000 years have used this fear to recruit ignorant and disenfranchised people to their bidding.
Well the Saudi and Pakistans problems are more complicated than most would think. The Saudi Royals gained control of Saudi Arabia approx. 200 years ago (around the time of American independence and french revolts. The Saudi Family used the Wahhabi clerics to gain control of the country. Now the relationship between them is a little like two friends who went into business but later realize they don't see eye to eye.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan should take a closer look inside Iraq at the U.S. Military successes with the Surge, armed with the new counter insurgency methods and tactics.
It is clear that al-Qaeda has not read their Mao. They are making enemies with the citizens of the areas they area wielding their evil deeds and terror tactics. They are relying on the fear they instill to hold back the rage of those who's lives and neighborhoods are penetrated and subjugated.
It appears to be crystal clear that al-Qaeda and Taliban currently get many active recruits from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Only a year ago the numbers of foreign insurgents caught or killed each year in Iraq was approx. 1,200-2,000 each year. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran, Syria and Egypt remained at approx 10-7% (each respectively) of the foreign insurgents. the remaining 50+ % were from 60 other countries.
Those numbers have gone up significantly . With one major change. Almost 20-30% of the foreign insurgents are now Saudi. The numbers for Syria, Jordan and Iran, remain high.
However it does seem that the Surge is making a big dent by obtaining these mid to high rank Saudi insurgents. It also backs up what most people in Iraq have said about Saudi Arabia. Also what people in Afghanistan have said about the numbers of Pakistani and Saudi in Afghanistan.
One thing I hear from Afghans and conspiracy theorists is the U.S. aiding the Taliban or al Qaeda. The main reason is the Money that we send to Pakistan and/or Saudi Governments. It is clear that a good amount of the money goes to the ISI ( Pakistan's secret service) and the Pakistan Military. Yet most people would agree that the military in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are the only thing that is keeping the radicals from overtaking the Governments. But most don't consider the fact that control over the government, does not mean they have control of the people. For this the governments have done all the wrong things in the propaganda war. They try and hide military actions causing a general mistrust amoung the disenfranshed citizens. Also they have tried to appease the very people they fight. Pakistan seems to be at the stage were they seem to be attempting to attack the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the NW Tribal areas. One indicator is the al-Qaeda style attacks against Pakistan Troops. One thing is certain, and that is the Pakistan army need retraining. They need to learn counter insurgency tactics! From the way the Tribal natives and Afghans speak of the Pakistan Government and Military it is clear there is no hearts or minds being won in the Tribal areas. The problem is much worse than a year ago. With the numbers of foreign militants within Pakistan having doubled. Also the number of Pakistan citizens commiting violence has almost tripled, this includes gangs of thugs that claim to be holy police.
Here is a letter from someone within the Tribal Areas. I have read many of his letters in the past. His hope has gone up and down for the past year, but his frustrations have grown. I really hope the Pakistan Army gets it right when they finally go in with boots on the ground. Currently they have seemed reluctant to confront the Enemy head on. They use arial tactics and often use local Tribal leaders and militias to lead the fights with minimal assistance from the Pakistan Army or ISI.
So the million dollar question is when will they start to make moves that hold ground, instead of taking ground, only to vacate and allow insurgents back in. - Ian Bach
Here are some links to some Articles at Peace and Freedom.
(One thing to consider here is how the Pakistan and Iraqi citizens think the USA is giving financial aide to governments... somehow transfers dirrectly to the way the Terrorist get their money. Well the fact is the Taliban and al Qaeda get their money from so many sources including web scams, identity theft, bank scams, clerics, money laudering, counterfiet money, foreign arab and muslim businessmen and yes even militant groups within the Pakistan and Iranian Armies. - Ian Bach)
Pakistan’s Frontier Still Held By Terrorists
Dear John E. Carey
Peace and Freedom
Dear Sir,
I am really grateful to your goodself for giving me so many times [oppertunities to post letters - I.B.]. You are really great. I have really enjoyed keeping contact you. Some time your kind words gave immence pleasure. I have been showing your words to my tribesmen that a person sitting on other side of the world have concern for you. So thank you very much.
Situation in the areas is the same as it was years ago. The exploitation and now the killing and destruction is the hallmark of every day. The tribesmen have been waiting for a miracle. They think one day the United States will order its rulers to stop playing the ugly game. They will directed to stop support to Taliban and terrorists. When that day will no one knows.
But how many years I shall live, but I have been loosing the hope and confidence. Report from Waziristan tribal region spoke of the same violence.........Click here for the complete letter.
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