Iran’s Drones Insights

America isn’t the only country that deploys drones to spy on its enemies. In the skies over Syria’s bloody civil war, above Iraq’s jihadist insurgency and across a number of regional conflicts, Iran’s drones are becoming an increasingly common sight.

Ever since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Iran has been an early adopter of unmanned technology. But as drones have become more important in warfare, Iran’s development of the pilotless aircraft has intensified.

Iranian officials’ penchant for showing off fake new weapons can make it hard to separate the fact from fiction about what Tehran’s drones can do. So much of what we know—or what we think we know—about Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles comes from propaganda outlets, which are only too keen to play down the impact of sanctions and play up Iran’s martial and engineering skill, often with ludicrous assertions.

The truth, as ever, lies somewhere in between two extremes. Sanctions haven’t stopped the the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from putting more unmanned planes in the air. But the Guards still face challenges in arming them with air-to-ground missiles and building a communications infrastructure with greater bandwidth and range in order to control the robots over more distant battlefields.

The story of Iran’s drone development isn’t the underdog tale of scrappy Iranian engineers scrambling to catch up with the United States, as the Guards so often claim. Instead, it’s the story of Iran’s military prudently developing UAVs that are just good enough—and progressively improving successful designs.

A number of export control laws, multilateral agreements and international sanctions complicate Iran’s ability to purchase drone parts on the open market. Moreover, the United States, the United Nations and other countries and world bodies have levied specific sanctions against Iranian entities — and those of Tehran’s allies — for their role in Iran’s UAV production.

Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company, Qods Aviation and Hezbollah’s Stars Holding Group are all subject to sanctions.

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Propaganda War against Syria, Hezbollah and Iran

I already posted when the Der Spiegel article came out Click here for that

My thoughts on Syria having a nuclear program, weather for weapon or power, is completly fabricated and BS. The cost and time aloone would be prohibitive. Asssad is currently financial cut off. So conserving what Syria has in treasure and man power would come first.
 - Ian Bach

Timothy Alexander Guzman, Silent Crow News – Former White House Chief of Staff for President Barack Obama and the current Mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emanuel once said “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.” Der Spiegel’s report on Syria’s alleged nuclear weapons program titled ‘Assad’s Secret: Evidence Points to Syrian Push for Nuclear Weapons’ is a true testimony to what Emanuel meant. The terror attacks in the offices of the French satirical weekly newspaper Charlie Hebdo took place on January 7th; two days later Der Spiegel’s report is published. The timing is perfect. Israeli media is running with it. The Tel-Aviv based www.ynetnews.com published an article titled ‘Syrian rebels: Iranian officers spotted near site of reported nuclear facility’ which confirms Der Spiegel’s accusations:

Following reports Syrian President Bashar Assad was building an underground nuclear facility, a senior Syrian rebel official told Saudi paper Okaz on Sunday that the Free Syrian Army has noted suspicious Syrian and Iranian movements in the town of Qusayr on the outskirts of Homs, where the facility is said to be.

According to the official, Abu Muhammad al-Bitar, the Free Syrian Army noted the presence of Iranian officers and “unprecedented” Hezbollah security in the area. Al-Bitar said the Friday report on Der Spiegel has been discussed at length in command meetings of rebel factions in the Kalamoon area. He went on to say that “what can be confirmed is that what’s going on there is happening under direct Iranian supervision and the Syrian regime is only a cover-up for this”

Now the Free Syrian Army is a trusted source of information? Why would the editors of Der Spiegel release their findings regarding “Assad’s Secret” nuclear weapons program right after the terrorist attack in Paris? Officials in Iran and Syria reject Der Spiegel’s claims. According to ynetnews:

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif. rejected the Der Spiegel report on Sunday as “ridiculous,” saying “the magazine’s allegation is one of the attempts made by those circles whose life has been based on violence and fear to cloud the international community with illusion and create imaginary concerns about the Islamic Republic,” according to the FARS news agency

Would Iran jeopardize the upcoming summit with U.S. officials concerning its nuclear program by assisting the Syrian government in developing nuclear weapons? A media source told the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA):

that Syria refutes these allegations in their entirety, asserting that the allegations, which were made by a magazine that often publishes preposterous allegations devoid of credibility, contradict the most basic rules of journalism ethics, and that they are part of the conspiracy and media misdirection campaign targeting Syria

Part of the report specifically focuses on the “intercepted Communication” by a high-ranking Hezbollah official and Ibrahim Othman, the head of the Syrian Atomic Energy Commission:

However, the clearest proof the report cited was an intercepted communication by radio traffic recently intercepted local spies, in which the voice identified as belonging to a high-ranking Hezbollah official can be heard calling the place an “atomic factory” specifically naming Qusayr as the area.  More importantly, the Hezbollah official frequently updated Ibrahim Othman, the head of the Syrian Atomic Energy Commission. The Syrian regime has transferred 8,000 fuel rods to the plant that had been planned for a facility at Al-Kibar, it added

The new propaganda campaign against the Syrian government is a dangerous elevation towards war. Der Spiegal’s report can be a starting point for a Western media propaganda blitz that will follow their government’s line, especially in the U.S. The allegations bring back memories of Ahmed Chalabi, the Iraqi politician who provided false information regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD’s) and Saddam’s alleged connection to Al-Qaeda. The information led to the Bush administration’s decision to invade and eventually occupy Iraq in 2003.

Der Spiegel and Israeli media are following Rahm Emanuel’s advice with the recent terror attacks in Paris. With more than 40 World leaders in attendance at a Paris solidarity movement against Islamic extremism this past Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas were at the forefront with French President Francois Hollande. Can Netanyahu be exploiting the terrorist attacks in Paris for an Israeli propaganda campaign against its adversaries back home because they too, face terrorism on a daily basis? Can he be as cynical as Madonna when she sent a “Je Suis Charlie” image on Instagram with a Hashtag promoting her new album ‘Rebel Heart’? Yes, of course he can. The point is that people in power especially politicians, will exploit any crises to their advantage, in this case, new accusations that Syria is in the process of developing nuclear weapons. Israeli officials in the past has warned that terrorists can eventually use “nuclear suitcases” in New York and other European cities as reported by the Washington Examiner in 2013:

An Israeli official warned that the agreement could result in a nuclear attack on the United States. “If a nuclear suitcase blows up in New York or Madrid five years from now, it will be because of the deal that was signed this morning,” Naftali Bennett, the nation’s minister of trade, industry, and labor

Bennet was speaking about Obama’s diplomatic efforts concerning Iran’s nuclear program. The Israeli government wants hegemony in the Middle East but it has a few obstacles in the way, and that is Syria and Iran. Many people in Israel prefer that the U.S. and its European allies to attack Syria. In 2013, a Gal Hadash poll was published in Israel Hayom, an Israeli national Hebrew-language newspaper and stated that more than 66 percent of respondents are in favor of a U.S. and European military intervention in Syria. For the Israeli government, a U.S-NATO attack on Syria would give the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) an open opportunity to pursue a war with Hezbollah and eventually Iran. Israel can use Der Spiegel’s report to its advantage no matter how preposterous it sounds. Right now, the world is mourning the 12 people who were gunned down in cold blood by Islamic extremists in Paris, France and you can bet Israel will exploit the tragedy to discredit its perceived enemies in the Arab world.

Israel is prepared for another war with Hezbollah as it is also awaiting the outcome of the upcoming nuclear talks between Iranian and U.S. officials which will resume on January 14th. One thing is for sure, 2015 is proving to be a very dangerous year for war and it can begin in Syria. Der Spiegel has ignited a new propaganda campaign against Syria as did the New York Times who made the same tragic mistake right before the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. But the question we need to ask is, will the world buy their story?

Posted in Geopolitics, Middle East on 12 January 2015 

Scores dead in heavy fighting in southern Syria

BEIRUT: Intense clashes in southern Syria have killed scores of pro-government and insurgent fighters in the past week, an activist group monitoring Syria's war said Sunday, forecasting even fiercer violence as the weather clears.

Syria's army and allied combatants from Hezbollah launched a large-scale offensive in the region last week against insurgent groups including Al-Qaeda's Syria wing Nusra Front and non-jihadi rebels.

The battle is significant because it is one of the last areas where mainstream rebels opposing President Bashar al-Assad have a foothold. Such groups have lost ground to hardline Islamist militants in the four-year conflict.

More than 50 rebels have been killed in the fighting....................

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Hezbollah leader denounces mass beheading of Copts

BEIRUT (AP) — The leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group has strongly denounced the Islamic State group’s beheading of a group of Egyptian Christian hostages in Libya.

In a speech to hundreds of his supporters in southern Beirut Monday, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah says the CIA and Israel’s Mossad are behind the extremist group, which serves their interests.

He claims Israel is the only country which has not been affected and does not consider the group a threat.

The Iranian-backed Shiite Hezbollah group, which has sent thousands of its fighters to Syria to help shore up President Bashar Assad’s forces, has positioned itself as a vanguard against Sunni extremists such as the Islamic State group.

Nasrallah called on regional governments to work together to confront IS, whose crimes “are a threat to the entire universe.”

ISIS Barbarians Face Their Own Internal Reign of Terror

The internal bloodletting among ISIS factions has begun, and could get much worse.

The propagandists of the putative Islamic State would have you believe it is just one big happy family, righteously slaughtering apostates, enslaving women (literally), beheading and burning alive its prisoners, all in the name of God. But quarrels over a range of issues—from divvying up of the spoils of war to competition over women and, yes, the handling of foreign hostages—point to a lot of trouble beneath the surface of this terror army.

This is according to political activists in northern Syria, including members of the a group called Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently, which follows developments in ISIS very closely and appear to be well-sourced inside the city of Raqqa, which is the so-called Islamic State’s capital. The group reported on a failed Jordanianattempt to rescue Muadh al Kasasbeh, a downed pilot from the Jordan Air Force, and his subsequent execution, burned alive, weeks before the hideous video of his murder was made public by ISIS.

Commanders in the Aleppo Operations Room, a center coordinating activities of the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army and other factions, tell The Daily Beast there has also been an increase in defections from ISIS ranks, especially among militants who have been selected for suicide-bomb missions.

On Friday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that an ISIS cleric in Aleppo province who dared to criticize the immolation of Kasasbeh has been removed from his post by the “caliphate” leadership and will be put on trial by the group. The Saudi-born imam had said those responsible for the video-recorded murder are the ones who should be put on trial. ISIS has responded to criticism from Quranic scholars the world over, who say the execution was utterly un-Islamic, by posting a line on Twitter insisting it is permissible to burn an infidel to death. (For the record, Kasasbeh was not an infidel at all, but a devout Muslim who prayed before he took off on the mission that ended with his plane crashing, his capture, and his murder. But the caliph and his cronies claim they have the exclusive right to decide who is and is not a Muslim, and what is and is not the will of God.)

Some independent Syrian media reported that the head of the al Hisba police force in Raqqa, responsible for the enforcement of Sharia law, fled after trying to mount a coup. But Slaughtered Silently activists say the departure of Abu Talha al-Kuwaiti, along with nearly a dozen of his supporters, wasn’t the upshot of a takeover bid. They say it arose out of more petty but equally deadly disputes that had led to the execution earlier in the war of his patron, the governor of the Raqqa, who went by the name Abu Ayyub al-Ansari.

The ISIS leadership has issued no statement about any of these reported executions.

Punitive killings, the flight of some senior ISIS commanders, and the execution of more than 60 foreign fighters who wanted to leave in recent days risk provoking more flare-ups, say residents who recently escaped Raqqa.

When arguments spin out of control, they are elevated to the level of treason, and disobedience is automatically seen as rebellion deserving of summary execution, according to some of these activists.

Many militants feel greater loyalty to their sub-groups—whether based on nationality or ideological background. Others have tried to leave ISIS to join the ranks of Jabhat al Nusra, which remains affiliated with al Qaeda but also has proven itself an effective force against Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad.

“ISIS has erected barriers and checkpoints throughout Raqqa, because the defectors have freed some detainees from Jabhat al Nusra group,” says a Raqqa activist who goes by the name Abu Mohammed. “Most of the defectors have fled to Turkey after paying large amounts of money, while the rest went to the areas controlled by the Jabhat al Nusra group.”

Disobedience is automatically seen as rebellion deserving of summary execution.

The burning alive of Kasasbeh and the slaying of two Japanese hostages last month also prompted sharp divisions over whether the captives should have been swapped for militants imprisoned in Jordan or elsewhere, or whether they should have been slaughtered immediately without any bargaining or prolonged publicity-seeking, according to the Slaughtered Silently activists reporting out of Raqqa.

One of those, who goes by the name Hamood Almossa, says ISIS militants are divided into several competing groups: Some are extreme hardliners originally attracted by the harsh application of Sharia law; others are Syrian militants who now complain that they bore the brunt of the months-long fighting over the border town of Kobani and are reluctant to be used to reinforce ISIS units in neighboring Iraq. Still others are Gulf Arabs jealous of the power held by hardcore Iraqi militants who form the inner coterie of the ISIS leadership around Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The Gulf Arabs, many of whom are veterans from the conflicts in Afghanistan and Pakistan, feel excluded from overall decision-making.

North African recruits among the Islamic State’s estimated 20,000 foreign fighters are among the most disgruntled, the Raqqa activists say. They complain they receive less than Gulf Arabs, Europeans, and Chechens who are paid as much as $1,000 a month. They grumble about missing out on many of the spoils of war, including women slaves and jihadi brides. Like local Syrian fighters, North African recruits say they have been used as cannon fodder, especially in the battle for Kobani.

Last week, four Tunisian recruits who joined ISIS months ago were executed in the neighborhood of Rumaila in central Raqqa, say opposition activists. They were described as traitors. Two other Tunisians, possibly along with family members, were executed in the Eddekhar neighborhood of Raqqa.

The quarrels and executions trigger more cycles of revenge as commanders and groups compete and jockey for power and survival. The disputes over the fate of Kasasbeh and the Japanese captives “raised the ire of the [Raqqa] security office, which started to eliminate a number of members who have become skeptical about the application of the law of God,” says Almossa.

The ISIS infighting and internal disputes could be likened to the Reign of Terror stage in the French Revolution, when Maximilien Robespierre sent revolutionaries as well foes to the guillotine.

Activists and Syrian Kurdish commanders in northeast Syria say the failure to capture Kobani has been a key factor in lowering morale, especially among foreign fighters who had never experienced a serious reversal in northern Syria. Kurdish commanders in the once-beleaguered city say they have found mass graves of both Kurds and ISIS fighters in recent days, the most recent containing the bodies of 200 Islamic militants. They claim, too, some Syrian fighters with ISIS defected during the siege and escaped to Turkey.

Mideast scholar Martin Kramer warns “there is a temptation to pick up signs of fragmentation and extrapolate them.” He says: “All Islamist movements have such potential conflicts. Hezbollah, for example, was a coalition of Shiites from two very different regions of Lebanon (Bekaa versus South), but it never split because Iran mediated the differences.”

The question is who within ISIS is mediating differences and whether internal conflict-resolution can contain the terror army’s mix of multiple groups and nationalities.

But activists are hoping that the disputes within ISIS will worsen before the group’s leaders are able to find a remedy and prevent deeper cleavages. Commanders with the Western-backed Free Syrian Army say they assess that the arrest campaigns and assassinations have taken their toll on ISIS but argue it is difficult to gauge how widespread the discontent is and how perilous it is for al-Baghdadi.

“There is a lot of mutual suspicion among the commanders,” says Mohammed, an FSA battle planner in Aleppo. “We tried to exchange some information with an ISIS commander recently and within days he was executed.”